Why a rubric
The problem with overseas property research
Developer brochures lead with yield. Travel blogs lead with lifestyle. Neither tells you whether you'll actually make money, whether you can sell when you want to, or whether the currency you're earning in is eroding your real return.
The Global Arbitrage Rubric exists because MPH needed a consistent, repeatable way to compare markets on the variables that determine actual investment outcomes — not projected brochure yields.
The seven factors
What we measure and why
Gross Rental Yield
Headline annual rent ÷ purchase price. Starting point only — must be adjusted for the factors below to get to a real return.
Liquidity
How quickly can you sell, and at what discount to ask price? Thin buyer pools trap capital in illiquid markets regardless of headline yield.
Currency Stability
Return measured in your home currency can differ sharply from local-currency returns. A strong yield in a weakening currency can net negative in real terms.
Residency Upside
Does the property investment qualify for a residency or citizenship program? A $275K property in Greece can unlock EU residency — that changes the calculus entirely.
Entry Barriers
Transaction costs (stamp duty, legal fees, agent fees, property transfer tax) reduce your effective yield from day one. Markets range from 3% to 15%+ in total friction.
Management Friction
Rental management quality, tenant law favourability, short-term rental regulations, and owner access rules. High yield with a 6-month eviction process loses much of its appeal.
Exit Conditions
Capital gains tax on exit, foreign ownership transfer restrictions, buyer pool at exit. Markets that are easy to enter can be surprisingly hard to exit profitably.
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Scoring criteria
How to apply a 1–5 score to each factor
Factor 1 — Gross Rental Yield
- 5: 8%+ gross yield with documented evidence from comparable sales
- 4: 6–8% yield, track record available
- 3: 4–6% yield — typical for established markets
- 2: 2–4% yield — capital-growth market with income secondary
- 1: Below 2% or yield data unreliable / developer projections only
Factor 2 — Liquidity
- 5: Deep buyer pool, typically selling within 90 days at ask price
- 4: Active market, 3–6 months typical, modest price negotiation
- 3: Moderate — 6–12 months with 5–10% discount to sell
- 2: Thin — 12–24 months, significant discount required
- 1: Illiquid — foreign buyer restrictions or near-zero resale market
Factor 3 — Currency Stability
- 5: USD-pegged or major reserve currency (EUR, USD, SGD)
- 4: Managed float with low historical volatility vs USD over 5 years
- 3: Moderate volatility — 10–20% swing vs USD over 5 years possible
- 2: High volatility — 20–40% swing history
- 1: Very high volatility or currency control risk
Factor 4 — Residency Upside
- 5: Direct CBI/RBI pathway — investment qualifies for residency or citizenship
- 4: Indirect residency pathway — property ownership supports application
- 3: No residency link but stable, foreigner-friendly ownership rules
- 2: Foreign ownership restrictions or complex title structures
- 1: Foreigners cannot own freehold land or face significant legal risk
Factor 5 — Entry Barriers
- 5: Under 3% total transaction cost
- 4: 3–6% total
- 3: 6–9% total
- 2: 9–12% total
- 1: Over 12% or opaque/variable transaction costs
Factor 6 — Management Friction
- 5: Strong management ecosystem, landlord-friendly law, minimal STR restrictions
- 4: Good management options, reasonable tenant law
- 3: Moderate friction — some regulation, management quality variable
- 2: Tenant-favoured law, STR heavily regulated or banned
- 1: Very high friction — eviction risk, platform bans, no management infrastructure
Factor 7 — Exit Conditions
- 5: No or minimal CGT on exit, no restrictions, deep buyer pool
- 4: Low CGT (<15%), no restrictions, active resale market
- 3: Moderate CGT (15–25%), standard market depth
- 2: High CGT (>25%) or repatriation restrictions
- 1: Capital controls, repatriation restrictions, or buyer pool essentially foreign-only
MPH market scores
Four flagship markets scored
| Factor | Dubai | Portugal | Greece (Athens Riviera) | Mexico (Riviera Maya) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Rental Yield | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Liquidity | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Currency Stability | 5 (AED/USD peg) | 5 (EUR) | 5 (EUR) | 3 (MXN) |
| Residency Upside | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Entry Barriers | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Management Friction | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Exit Conditions | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Total / 35 | 32 | 27 | 26 | 21 |
How to use this
Weight the factors that matter most to you. A yield-focused investor weights factors 1, 2, and 6. A residency-motivated buyer weights factor 4. A capital-preservation investor weights 3 and 7. Re-rank the markets against your own weights — the right answer is different for everyone.