Georgia · Intelligence Score
Georgia scores 72 / 100 — Qualified, Arbitrage Pass, Scarcity Conditional.
Georgia is scored as a destination: national residential and income real estate across Tbilisi, Batumi and wider urban/coastal markets, fully open to foreign ownership. Arbitrage 7.9 (Pass) · Scarcity 6.7 (Cond) · Exit 7.0 (Pass). Arbitrage 7.9 is the highest Arbitrage score in the current destination portfolio: the combination of sub-USD 1,900/m² primary-market prices, 7.4–8.5% gross yields and a 0% purchase-tax, 5% rental-income-tax structure delivers an investor cost advantage unmatched in any other market currently scored. Scarcity is held to Conditional by supply_constraint 5.5: the development pipeline in Tbilisi and Batumi is active, and land is ample nationally. Risk 33 Moderate — political_stability 55 is the most significant risk factor and the lowest political score in the portfolio. Confidence 87 / 100.
Georgia, scored as a destination
National residential and income real estate across Tbilisi, Batumi and other urban/coastal markets accessible to foreign buyers. GEL / USD entry currency; property-based residence permit (USD 150k from March 2026) and USD 300k Investor Visa active; no CBI.
Three pillars, one number
Arbitrage, Scarcity and Exit each 0–10, equal-weighted, headline score = average × 10. A pillar must reach 7.0 to Pass; all three passing earns MPH Verified™. Georgia passes Arbitrage and Exit; Scarcity is held to Conditional by an active supply pipeline that dilutes what would otherwise be a stronger national signal.
Rating band
At 72, Georgia sits in the lower-Qualified band. Opportunity 73 marginally exceeds MPH 72 because the Arbitrage pillar (highest weight at 45% in the Opportunity formula) is the portfolio’s strongest destination Arbitrage. The Tbilisi / Batumi segment will test whether more geographically concentrated supply constraint can push Scarcity toward Pass.
Georgia assessed against the three criteria
What each pillar scored and why — and how the portfolio’s strongest Arbitrage coexists with the portfolio’s lowest political stability.
Arbitrage passes at 7.9 — the highest Arbitrage score in the current destination portfolio — driven by a trifecta of sub-factors that together produce exceptional investor cost advantage. Price-to-value gap (8.0): primary-market prices of USD 1,400–1,865/m² in Tbilisi (GlobalPropertyGuide, Kedaronews) are low for a capital city producing mid-to-high-single-digit yields; comparable-quality stock in Western EU markets prices at three to five times this level. Yield spread (8.5): at 7.42% nationally (Q1 2026, GlobalPropertyGuide) and 8.5% in Tbilisi mid-size apartments (Kedaronews), Georgia’s yields sit well above the 3–4% prime benchmark used by mature markets, and remain high even as modest compression from the 7.90% Q3 2025 peak is noted. Tax and cost differential (8.5): the structure is genuinely exceptional — 0% purchase/stamp tax, 0–1% annual municipal property tax, 5% flat tax on residential rental income, and no capital gains tax on residential property after two years of ownership — at a fraction of the combined cost in EU, UK, or North American markets. Currency entry advantage (6.5): the GEL is broadly stable (USD/GEL moved from 2.81 to 2.70 YoY; NBG accumulates USD 5.6bn in reserves), but as an emerging-market currency it carries inherent FX volatility rather than the safe-haven or clear-undervaluation characteristics that would warrant a higher score.
Scarcity scores 6.7 Conditional. The decisive drag is supply_constraint (5.5): at national scale, Georgia has abundant developable land, and the residential pipeline is active — new construction continues in Vake, Saburtalo and across Tbilisi’s suburbs, while Batumi’s seafront is seeing sustained developer activity. There are no meaningful zoning caps or heritage restrictions that would limit supply at national level, and some central districts are already showing signs of moderate oversupply. This is the correct signal: Georgia’s Scarcity must be earned at the sub-market level (specific Tbilisi districts, established Batumi seafront rows), not assumed at national scale. Demand trajectory (7.5) is a genuine positive: GDP growth of 7.7% in the first nine months of 2025 and a 7.4% full-year forecast, together with a USD 4.3bn residential market (Metropolitan.RealEstate, 2024) and rising foreign-buyer activity, provide strong underlying demand. Uniqueness (7.0) acknowledges Georgia’s distinctive blend of low taxes, open ownership, scenic diversity (Caucasus mountains, Black Sea coast, medieval capital), and improving governance — differentiating it within the emerging-Europe set, though not irreplicably unique at global scale. Programme / window scarcity (7.0) captures a genuine first-mover signal: the 50% threshold hike from USD 100k to USD 150k effective March 1, 2026 (IMI Daily) creates reform momentum that buyers entering after March 2026 are already above; if further hikes come, current entrants will be grandfathered.
Exit passes at 7.0 (raw 7.025). Capital mobility (8.0) is the anchor: Georgia permits full foreign property ownership, free profit repatriation, and unrestricted inbound/outbound capital transfers for foreign property investors; there are no capital controls targeting real estate investment income. Resale liquidity (7.0) is solid in Tbilisi and Batumi, where the USD 4.3bn residential market, active foreign-buyer presence, and rising yields create a functioning secondary market; national DOM data is not systematically published but transaction velocity in prime areas is evidenced by price growth (+9.4% YoY on primary market). Transaction friction (6.5) is moderate rather than low: the property purchase process is genuinely streamlined (no stamp duty, standard registration via the Public Service Hall), but foreign buyers pursuing visa-linked routes must obtain accredited property appraisals, and the legal system operates at emerging-market quality rather than EU/common-law standard. Holding-period flexibility (6.5) has a structural nuance: pure investors with no visa motive face no minimum hold and favourable CGT treatment (residential property held over two years is CGT-exempt); however, the USD 150k property-based residence permit is revocable if property value falls below the threshold, and the USD 300k Investor Visa requires maintaining the qualifying investment for five years to reach PR — a meaningful holding constraint for visa-linked entrants.
Opportunity, Risk & Confidence
The same pillar data, re-expressed as upside, downside, and conviction in the evidence.
Opportunity 73 exceeds MPH 72 because Arbitrage (7.9) carries 45% weight in the Opportunity formula, pulling the opportunity read above the equal-weighted headline. The yield outlook sub-factor (7.5) reinforces this: the 12–24 month view is for sustained high yields even under mild compression. This is primarily a yield-and-appreciation opportunity at low absolute entry prices, not a Scarcity play.
Risk 33 sits materially higher than EU-based Moderate markets (Italy 28, Cyprus 27). Political stability 55 — the lowest in the current portfolio — drives stability down to 64, the lowest stability of any scored market. The “Moderate” band is technically accurate (26–50), but Georgia’s Moderate risk means something structurally different from Italy’s: regional tensions, domestic political volatility, and evolving EU relations are active risk factors.
Data confidence 87 — data_recency 90, source_depth 88, on_ground_verification 82. Georgia has strong local data infrastructure: Geostat, NBG, TBC Capital, and multiple practitioner sources (Tbilisi Expat, SeasideGeorgia, DazHomes, Metropolitan.RealEstate) triangulate well. National DOM is the primary gap.
The report scorecard
Nine fixed rows, identical across all markets — compare any two line by line. Georgia’s scorecard is defined by the extreme contrast between Arbitrage strength (7.9) and capital safety (6.7, lowest in portfolio).
Tbilisi Old Town & Mtatsminda + Batumi Black Sea Beachfront
This segment scores Georgia’s prime investor corridor: heritage and hilltop residential in Tbilisi (Old Town, Mtatsminda) and Black Sea beachfront/central apartments in Batumi. Foreign-buyer share is higher, yields are better-evidenced, and the RBI threshold maps directly onto the entry price range. The segment is scored as a standalone sub-market; all national GEL/USD currency and investor-visa/tax mechanics are inherited.
Segment Arbitrage holds at 7.8 (national: 7.9). Tax and cost differential remains 8.5 — the 0% purchase tax / 5% rental income tax / 0–1% annual property tax structure applies at every price point in this corridor. Price-to-value gap 8.0 holds: even at the Tbilisi Old Town / Mtatsminda premium (USD 1,800–2,300/m²) and central Batumi (USD 1,493–2,906/m² beachfront), prices remain low versus comparable resort/urban quality in Turkey, Croatia, Portugal and the Mediterranean. Yield spread eases to 8.0 (from 8.5 nationally): TBC Capital’s Batumi data shows gross yields declining from 10% (2023) to 7.4% (2025), forecast further to 5.1–3.4% amid pipeline growth; Tbilisi mid-size apartments sustain 8.5%, but net yields in Batumi STR complexes after fees and vacancy run 1.5–4%. Currency entry advantage 6.5 is unchanged.
Scarcity passes at 7.1 at segment level (national: 6.7 Conditional). The headline move is that demand trajectory, uniqueness and programme window scarcity each score higher than at national level, pulling the weighted average above the 7.0 threshold despite supply constraint remaining at 5.5. Demand trajectory 8.0: TBC Capital data shows Batumi average prices up 17% YoY (2025), 4,049 apartments sold Q1 2026 (+15.8% YoY), 77% international buyers, and Tbilisi prime up ~85% over 2018–2023 (Expathaus). Uniqueness 7.5 (national: 7.0): at segment level, Tbilisi Old Town and Mtatsminda’s combination of heritage fabric, hilltop views, proximity to the city centre, and limited new development sites is a stronger differentiated offer than the national average; Batumi beachfront’s first-row Black Sea positioning is a real but regional differentiator. Programme window scarcity 7.5 (national: 7.0): the USD 150k threshold maps directly and tightly onto this price band, and the value-floor revocation condition creates meaningful selection pressure on property choice — buyers target this segment specifically to qualify, giving entry stock a genuine programme-driven demand bid. Supply constraint 5.5 is unchanged: Batumi’s pipeline is among the most aggressive of any beachfront market scored — housing stock grew from 86k (2020) to 119k (2024) with 58k more planned through 2029, of which 80% are STR-oriented; in some Batumi districts, investor units reach 96% of stock. Tbilisi Old Town / Mtatsminda is genuinely heritage-constrained, but the segment-level score captures both cities.
Exit improves to 7.2 (national: 7.0). Resale liquidity rises to 7.5: at segment level, Tbilisi and Batumi both have active secondary markets with documented transaction volumes (4,049 units Q1 2026 in Batumi alone), foreign buyer demand, and multiple local brokers (Metropolitan.RealEstate, Expathaus, SeaSide Georgia, Werty) providing active market intelligence. Capital mobility 8.0 is unchanged. Transaction friction 6.5 remains — the legal process is straightforward but practitioners (Werty, ProInvesten) consistently flag the need for careful project-level due diligence on developer contracts and STR licencing, particularly in Batumi complexes. Holding-period flexibility 6.5 is unchanged: the USD 150k value-floor condition on the residence permit is a material holding constraint for visa-linked buyers; pure investors face no statutory minimum hold and favourable CGT treatment.
What is and isn’t scored
This score covers national residential and income real estate across Georgia’s urban, coastal and provincial markets accessible to foreign buyers. The Tbilisi / Batumi prime segment section above is complete and has been scored under MPH Methodology v1.2.
Georgia property in 2026 — the three questions buyers ask
The same MPH sub-factor scores, regrouped around what matters at the deal table: can you own it, what it earns, and how you exit.
One of the world’s most open foreign ownership systems — no restrictions, no approval, no nationality limitations. Zero transfer tax; notary and legal fees only ~1% of value — the lowest acquisition cost of any MPH market. No annual property tax below a modest threshold. Investor Visa available from USD 150k real estate investment. Title registry is digital, fast, and reliable. The political stability backdrop (Russia-adjacent, 2024 domestic tensions) is the principal legal risk to monitor.
Tbilisi STR yields of 8–12% gross and Batumi beachfront of 10–14% gross are among the highest documented yields in the MPH portfolio. Price-to-value is exceptional (8.0) — quality residential product trades at a fraction of comparable Eastern European and Mediterranean alternatives. GEL is a managed float with reasonable stability but is not a reserve currency — USD-priced transactions are available in tourist-grade stock.
No capital controls — repatriation is unrestricted and the NBG does not impose transfer barriers. Resale market is active and deepening in Tbilisi Old Town and Batumi beachfront. International buyer pool is growing (primarily European and Middle Eastern) but the market is still maturing; time-to-sale is longer than Western benchmarks. GEL currency trajectory at exit is the key variable.
What’s solid, what to verify
Confidence 87 / 100 — data_recency 90, source_depth 88, on_ground_verification 82. Pricing, yields, tax regime and programme status are very well-evidenced. The primary data gap is the absence of a standardised national DOM statistic; resale liquidity rated from transaction volume, yield proxies and practitioner accounts.
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