Dubai, UAE · Intelligence Score
Dubai scores 79 / 100 — the portfolio's top score and lowest risk, held back only by its own building boom.
Best-in-set value (cheap prime, 6–7% gross yields, zero income, capital-gains or annual property tax), the deepest and most liquid exit anywhere we score, and a USD-pegged dirham — Dubai posts the highest MPH and the lowest Risk in the portfolio. The one thing keeping it out of Strong, and out of Verified, is citywide supply: a vast handover pipeline drags Scarcity to Conditional. Buy the liquidity and the tax-free yield; mind the oversupply at the affordable end.
Dubai, scored citywide
Scored across Dubai's full investable range, not just the trophy tier. The prime market (Palm Jumeirah, Downtown, Emirates Hills) is more supply-constrained and would score higher — see the scope note below.
Three pillars, one number
The MPH Intelligence Filter scores every market on three pillars — Arbitrage, Scarcity, Exit — each 0–10. The headline MPH Score is their equal-weighted average. A market is only as investable as its weakest essential pillar — here, Scarcity.
Rating band
Dubai sits at the very top of Qualified — one point from Strong. Lifting Scarcity (i.e. scoring the supply-constrained prime tier) is what would push it into the next band.
Dubai assessed against the three criteria
Why each pillar scored what it did — and the sub-factors behind it.
Arbitrage is a defining strength — the highest pillar value in the portfolio bar Belize. Prime Dubai (~US$1,026/ft²) remains well below comparable global prime (London, New York, Hong Kong at multiples of that), even after a sharp luxury run; gross yields of ~6.5–7% beat the ~3% of mature cities; and the tax position is best-in-class — no income tax, no capital-gains tax, no annual property tax, with a single ~4% transfer fee (DLD). The one moderating factor is currency: the dirham is pegged to the US dollar, which is a stability positive but offers no entry-price mispricing — so it scores neutral, not high.
Scarcity is the pillar that caps the score, and the cause is specific: supply. Demand is extraordinary — Dubai recorded AED 682.5B of sales in 2025 (up ~30%), roughly 1,000 new residents a day, and 250,000+ Golden Visas — which is why demand scores near the top. But citywide supply is abundant, not constrained: a ~110,000+ unit handover pipeline through 2025–26 brings genuine oversupply risk in the affordable and mid-market segments, so supply_constraint scores low (4.5). And because the Golden Visa is openly available and being made easier (not a closing window), the programme adds little scarcity. Strong demand against abundant supply nets to Conditional — a citywide story that masks a tighter, more constrained prime market.
Exit is the strongest in the entire portfolio. Dubai is the world's most active prime market — the deepest pool of buyers, the #1 market globally for US$10M+ sales, and tens of thousands of resale transactions a year — so liquidity is exceptional. Capital mobility is effectively frictionless: no capital controls, full and free repatriation of proceeds, and a freely convertible (pegged) currency. There are no holding lock-ups, and the digital Dubai Land Department process is fast and reliable, with only the ~4% transfer fee as meaningful friction. For getting capital back out, nothing we score is better.
Opportunity, Risk & Confidence
The same pillar data, re-expressed as upside, downside, and conviction in the evidence.
Weighted to Arbitrage and Scarcity. Value and yield drive a strong upside read; the citywide supply overhang is what holds it back from exceptional.
The lowest risk reading in the portfolio. Best-in-class Exit liquidity plus a high stability overlay (85) — USD peg, strong governance and rule of law — anchor the downside. The live risk is a price/supply cycle, not capital safety.
The highest confidence in the portfolio. Mature, data-rich market with deep, independent sources (Knight Frank, the Land Department, World Bank / WJP) and repeated verification.
The complete Dubai score breakdown continues for MPH members
- ✓ The report scorecard
- ✓ Dubai Prime zoomed in: Scarcity solved, Verified™ achieved
- ✓ Citywide vs. prime — the score hides a split
The full detail — including the 9-line report scorecard and segment analysis — lives in the Dubai Intelligence Report, part of the MPH Intelligence Library included in every membership tier.
Explore Membership →Already a member? Open it in your portal →
Dubai property in 2026 — the three questions buyers ask
The same MPH sub-factor scores, regrouped around what matters at the deal table: can you own it, what it earns, and how you exit.
Freehold ownership in designated zones — open to all nationalities, fully title-deed registered in 2–3 days. DLD fee is 4%, agent 2%, admin ~USD 500 — acquisition costs are below most OECD markets. Zero annual property tax, zero capital gains, zero income tax. The 10-year Golden Visa is issued from AED 2M property value (~USD 545k) with no minimum stay requirement. AED is pegged to USD at 3.67 — currency risk is effectively zero.
Gross yields of 5–9% across residential; STR-licensed units in prime zones (Palm, DIFC, Downtown, JBR) achieve 8–12%+ at strong occupancy. Price-to-value relative to London, Singapore, and New York for comparable trophy product represents one of the largest arbitrage gaps in the MPH portfolio. Zero tax on rental income makes net yields the highest in any comparison set.
The world’s most active expat property market with deep international buyer pools across Asian, European, Russian, Indian, and MENA segments. RERA-registered title transfers in days; no restrictions on selling or repatriating capital. AED/USD peg means exit proceeds are effectively USD-denominated. Capital mobility scores 9.5 — portfolio-highest alongside Cayman and Singapore.
What’s solid, what to verify
Confidence 84 / 100 — the highest in the portfolio, drawing on mature, independent data (prime-market reviews, the Land Department's transaction record, governance indices). The time-sensitive items are the supply pipeline and Golden Visa thresholds, both of which are evolving — verify current handover data and visa rules for the specific asset before committing.
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A structured walkthrough of the score, the citywide-vs-prime split, the Golden Visa, the supply pipeline, and where the genuine scarcity sits — independent, with no developer affiliation.
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