Mexico · Intelligence Score
Mexico scores 71 / 100 — a North-American value play that clears the filter on the line.
Cheap entry versus the US and Canada and the deepest North-American buyer pool in the portfolio earn Mexico an MPH Verified* mark. But the asterisk matters: Scarcity and Exit reach the Pass line only by rounding, and the flagship Riviera Maya resort segment is in documented oversupply. A genuine Qualified value market — verify the segment before you trust the headline.
One regional score, one segment sub-score
Mexico is scored at the national investment-destination level across its main foreign-buyer corridors. The Riviera Maya resort segment diverges enough to carry its own sub-score — and, unusually, it scores lower than the country as a whole.
Three pillars, one number
The MPH Intelligence Filter scores every market on three pillars — Arbitrage, Scarcity, Exit — each 0–10. The headline MPH Score is their equal-weighted average, on a 0–100 scale. A market is only as investable as its weakest essential pillar.
Rating band
Where the MPH Score places on the tier ladder. Markets below 60 fail the filter and are not published.
Mexico assessed against the three criteria
Why each pillar scored what it did — and the sub-factors behind it.
This is Mexico's strongest pillar and the heart of the case. Coastal and core-urban stock used by foreign buyers is priced well below comparable US and Canadian markets on a quality-per-dollar basis — a clear, durable discount. Gross rental yields run roughly 5–7% in foreign-buyer submarkets against a 3–4% North-American benchmark, and the annual property tax (predial) is low by international standards. The one genuine drag is the peso: MXN is materially more volatile than USD/CAD, so cheap entry in dollar terms comes bundled with real currency risk on returns — which is why the currency sub-factor pulls the pillar down rather than up.
Scarcity is mixed, and clears the bar by a whisker. The strength is the bundle: Mexico's combination of US proximity, low cost, climate, scale and direct-flight density is genuinely hard for North-American buyers to replicate elsewhere, and demand is structurally positive from retirees, remote workers and tourism. The weakness is supply and access: outside specific coastal and heritage micro-markets, land and stock are plentiful, and the residency pathway is open-ended — there is no quota, sunset or window scarcity to force urgency. The weighted result lands at 6.99 and rounds to the 7.0 Pass line.
Exit also clears on the line. The positives are real: an open capital account with free repatriation of sale proceeds and rental income, the deepest North-American buyer pool of any non-US/EU market in the portfolio, and no statutory lock-up on the property itself. The friction is structural rather than fatal — foreign buyers within 50km of the coast must hold through a fideicomiso (bank trust) or Mexican corporation, and conveyancing is notary-based and bureaucratic. Netted out, the weighted value is 6.95, rounding to 7.0.
Opportunity, Risk & Confidence
The same pillar data, re-expressed as upside, downside, and conviction in the evidence.
Upside magnitude, weighted to Arbitrage and Scarcity. Mexico's value and yield carry the opportunity; the mixed scarcity caps it.
Downside exposure (lower is safer), from Exit liquidity and a stability overlay (62). The live drags are security/governance and peso volatility — not the property framework, which is stable.
Conviction in the evidence. Data is current (2026), but several yield and price figures rest on commercial property guides, and this run carries no MPH on-ground verification.
The complete Mexico score breakdown continues for MPH members
- ✓ The report scorecard
- ✓ Riviera Maya ↓ 69 · Watch
The full detail — including the 9-line report scorecard and segment analysis — lives in the Mexico Intelligence Report, part of the MPH Intelligence Library included in every membership tier.
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Mexico property in 2026 — the three questions buyers ask
The same MPH sub-factor scores, regrouped around what matters at the deal table: can you own it, what it earns, and how you exit.
Foreigners in the Restricted Zone (50 km coast, 100 km border) must hold property via a bank trust (fideicomiso) or Mexican corporation; outside the zone, freehold is available directly. Fideicomiso setup costs ~USD 1,500 and ~USD 600/yr maintenance; transfer tax varies 2–4% by state. No property-linked citizenship programme, but Temporary Resident status is accessible from a comparatively low asset threshold.
Riviera Maya (Tulum, Playa del Carmen, Akumal) delivers 8–12% gross STR yields in managed product at full occupancy — a clear standout in the MPH portfolio. Price-to-value vs comparable US coastal or European beach markets is strongly positive. The peso depreciation trend is the one FX headwind for USD-cost investors.
An active USD-denominated resale market (Riviera Maya transactions are quoted and settled in dollars) reduces currency risk at exit. North American buyer pool is deep; fideicomiso resale is well-understood and standard. Capital repatriation is permitted and common, but peso volatility in the transfer window is a real risk for funds held in MXN.
What’s solid, what to verify
Confidence 73 / 100. Data recency is high (2026) and the source base is broad, but several yield/price figures rest on commercial property-guide sources and the run carries no MPH on-ground verification yet. Exact rental tax and capital-gains treatment for foreign owners vary by structure — verify with Mexican counsel and a cross-border tax adviser before committing capital.
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A structured walkthrough of the score, the corridors, the Riviera Maya oversupply picture, and the ejido / fideicomiso due-diligence checklist — independent, with no developer affiliation.
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